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El Nino this summer?

hodgmo

hodgmo

Still Floating
hodgmo said:
NOAA has issued an el nino watch for this summer

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

(There are also some cool images at http://earth.nullschool.net/)

Comparing past SHTP results for el nino years with non-el nino summers indicates no significant correlation (82, 92, 94, 02, 04, 06).

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/history.html

I wonder about the return sail though... any old timers have wisdom to share?
Click to expand...

The second link only plots the correlation between the Scripps model and sea temperatures, not the SHTP results. What are you trying to compare, transit times with el nino events?
 
Apologies for not being clearer. You are partially correct about the 2nd link; in addition to the comparison with the model, it shows el nino history. I used the latter to find the el ninos that happened during a shtp. The shtp results I referred to were the ones in the spreadsheet that was emailed out a year or so ago, at least to the 2012 racers. It is an excel spreadsheet that shows all the results since the 1st race in '78. The elapsed times (average and winners) don’t appear to depend on whether it was an el nino summer or not. It’d be nice to know if there were el nino effects, such as more squalls, and/or whether return trip strategies were affected. I’m away from my boat and thinking too much.
 
My understanding is that the real effects of the el nino will not be felt until late summer/early fall (but I may be having a senior moment)
 
July list of Hawaii Hurricanes that mostly petered into tropical depressions or dissipated enough, but still brought waves/wind and damage. Next to that is the event of el Nino or El Nina (at .5 or -.5 min temp). I Wiki'd Hawaii Hurricanes and then compared it with the graph of sea temp changes.

1957 Nino
1971 Nina
1982 Neither
1983 Nino
1985 Nina
1986 Neither
1989 Nina
1992 Nino
1993 Neither
1994 Neither
2013 Nina

Out of 11 Hurricanes since 1957 that were Hawaii's concern, 7 of them were in years of higher or lower that the .5 threshold temps. I think most were from mid July onward. I have not heard from you old salts about this being of concern, so I am not concerned, but these are limited data points. I hope that we get a push from any tropical depressions or dissipations. Also, if I read correctly, there is no coming El Nino, but rather a 65% chance that we are on track for an El Nino.
 
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My understanding is you need SST's of 80 degrees or tropical systems dissipate. Even with the high sea temperatures this season (see Gamay's link) the chance of something major getting up to Hawaii is remote. Yellow is below 80F:

This was a .gif so it got shrunk - Hawaii is the little black dot...
View attachment 628
 
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2000 brought Daniel to the tail end of the Pacific Cup. (PacCup started slowest boats Monday July 10? I was on one, we spent 3 days at Noon Day Rock. We weren't alone.)

A good friend of mine got caught in it, along with "Formerly Known", and yes, it was indeed diminishing in force as it approached. Both yachts battened down the hatches. They were about 2/3 of the way to Kaneohe. Big Seas.

They got there. Many of us were so stuck, drifting, that we turned back or didn't finish in time. In 2006 the RC extended the time limit to finish.
 
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