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Weather Thread

June 30th-July 1st:
pwbe98.gif


See if this works. I like the black and white ones better, but they're too big to post here.
 
I pulled my first GRIB's and sent a couple e-mails via satphone on the boat today - cool stuff.


Be very glad we're not starting today - it's all wrong out there right now.
 
Be very glad we're not starting today - it's all wrong out there right now.[/QUOTE

We can thank the wisdom and far sightedness of the race committee for starting this years race several weeks later than previous years.
Thank you Race Committee.
 
BobJ said:
I pulled my first GRIB's and sent a couple e-mails via satphone on the boat today - cool stuff.


Be very glad we're not starting today - it's all wrong out there right now.
Click to expand...

Yeah, if we were out there NOW, we'd be looking at crossing 130W at about 25N. sheesh. Thank You Race Committee.

I've figured out how to get stuff from the NOAA e-mail and ftp site, and have subscribed to GRIBS from saildocs covering the course for 30 days. I know the messages to send for text e-mail and to get good old hand-drawn weatherfax in .tif format. The weatherfax graphics files aren't as bad as I thought they'd be, only about 20 kbytes. The GRIB's' are only 3-4-5 kbytes.

Now I'm antsy for the Sat Phone to get here so I can figure that out.
 
Of course, the late start puts some boats out of the race due to time constraints.

Paul Woodward
s/v Hesperus
 
I was wondering what happened to you Paul.
Well if you had started in late June I don't think you would have made any time deadlines anyway with the way the weather is out there.
Who knows maybe the weather wont be any better latter.
The times they are a changing.
 
A 180-hour surface forecast yesterday (for 7/08) was looking like a return to "normal," but today's (for the ninth) is looking like it's going light again. I guess it's those "waves" that Skip was talking about in another thread.

I think I'll fill the fifth water jug.

Hi Paul!
 
Phil,

I'm a pretty irresponsible guy, but somehow, starting toward the middle of July seems too irresponsible, even for me, since I'm supposed to be back in North Carolina for classes by the middle of August. But, as you note, the finish date may not be much different, which ever is the start date. Plus, if we accept Alan's estimate of Hesperus' seaworthyness (see his later posts in the Race of Rally thread), some one would likely have had to pluck me out of the ocean part way across had I entered the race. Not having to deal with the boat in Hawaii would save a lot of time, so I guess I should have entered this year, is it too late?

Paul Woodward
s/v Hesperus
 
Hesperus said:
Phil,

Plus, if we accept Alan's estimate of Hesperus' seaworthyness (see his later posts in the Race of Rally thread), some one would likely have had to pluck me out of the ocean part way across had I entered the race. Not having to deal with the boat in Hawaii would save a lot of time, so I guess I should have entered this year, is it too late?

Paul Woodward
s/v Hesperus
Click to expand...

I don't want to get into a big spat over this. You pointed out in your message to me that I had no idea of the work that you put into Hesperus for the 2006 SHTP race, nor do I have any idea what work you did on Hesperus before you sailed her back to the Pacific Northwest. You are absolutely right on both points, I have no idea what you did and so I based my comments on what I remembered from 2004. I have no doubt that Hesperus is in much, much better shape now than she was in 2004. So my comments on this board were not entirely fair.

You've taken that little boat from Hawaii and sailed her, solo, back to Puget Sound. That's amazing, and a fantastic trip and worthy of praise and admiration no matter what condition she was in. After all, Hesperus is a small boat and that's a gutsy trip to do in ANY small boat.

Finally like I wrote in my response to you, YOU have a SHTP belt buckle. I don't. 'nuff said. Hopefully I'll earn mine in a couple of weeks. I've now written all this both in private and out here where the whole world can see it.

I understand that what I wrote might not be exactly the most happy-making stuff for you to read. However, my intent was to praise Chris Humann, who is a good sailor and a consummate gentleman, like you are. I tried to go to some pains to do that....praise Chris, and not to slam you or Hesperus, though I understand how it might not feel that way to you.

Again, I wrote what I wrote having in mind the boat I saw in 2004. As you pointed out, that's not fair to you or to Hesperus. Agreed.

You crossed the Pacific in Hesperus. You then turned around and did it again in the other direction. Achievements speak for themselves.
 
Hi Paul,

Hey, I meant no disrespect either. You have my respect. I was asked if I would do the inspection on your boat and I agreed. I was actually looking forward to it.

cheers

Phil
 
Hi Phil,

I saw no disrespect in your message. I appreciate Alan's words as well. I guess that I am a bit sensitive. Alan is not the first to question Hesperus' worthyness. She was criticized after the '04 SHTP (a race in which she did not compete), and you saw what Alan suggested this year (which is rooted, I believe, in that earlier criticism). She may not be in the league of Carroll E, Haulback, or Dogbark, but she is a legitimate ocean going yacht, as I believe she has demonstrated. Someday she may even show how fast she is offshore (I saw 14+ knots during the '06 SHTP). She did lose her rudder in that race. I attribute that to the builders skimping during construction. Every one who saw what remained of the rudder stock agreed that it was much too small for what it was. It was schedule 10 stainless pipe, the company now building Sonars (of which Hesperus is a derivitive) use schedule 40 (i.e., much heavier) pipe for the rudder stock. What might be more surprising is that it lasted 20 years (as far as I know) and most of the way to Hawaii. My failure was, of course, not checking it more carefully before heading off shore. It didn't occur to me that that might be a point of vulnerability. What should be learned from that, it seems to me, is that absolutely every thing should be checked and double checked before heading off shore, especially if one is sailing a boat that was not specifically built to go off shore. (Obviously, that is a rule that one might think shouldn't need to be learned, but I bet it is one learned often.) After the rudder broke off, Carroll E accompanied me in to Hanalai Bay, by doing so Chris turned what might have been a dangerous situation into a mere challenge to see how well I could sail the boat with no rudder. Chris has my deepest appreciation. There should be nothing, it seems to me, in the rules or administration of the race to discourage such behavior, and I would hope that all who participate in the race would behave similarly.

Fair winds and following seas for all who are entered this year.

Paul Woodward
s/v Hesperus
 
BobJ said:
A 180-hour surface forecast yesterday (for 7/08) was looking like a return to "normal," but today's (for the ninth) is looking like it's going light again. I guess it's those "waves" that Skip was talking about in another thread.

I think I'll fill the fifth water jug.

Hi Paul!
Click to expand...

TROPICAL WAVES are passing localized bends in isobars that indicate a trough of lower atmospheric pressure. These WAVES travel east to west below latitude 30, can be seen by dashed lines on a weather fax map, and may influence the second half of a SHTP.

TROPICAL WAVES are sometimes the precursor or remains of a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane. They travel at the speed of the tradewinds, at about 15-20 knots.

A TROPICAL WAVE will typically converge with the SHTP fleet from astern and from the south (port/aft.) Initially, with the approach of a TROPICAL WAVE at 200-300 miles, the tradewinds will back from the NE into the N, and starboard jibe will be much favored.

As the TROPICAL WAVE passes to the south, the wind will veer over 24-48 hours into the SE, S, or even SW, and reaching on port jibe becomes the order of the day. Often, during this phase, a TROPICAL WAVE may leave a wind void in its wake until normal tradewind regimen resumes in a day or two.

TROPICAL WAVES can better be seen on tropical surface weather fax maps than on GRIB. Either way, they are just one weather feature that can be found on the race track to Hanalei, and their resulting windshift can sometimes be taken advantage of in the approach to the Islands
 
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Thanks Skip.

Very early prediction is it's shaping up to be a nice rhumbliner. Anyone else want to prognosticate?
 
BobJ said:
Very early prediction is it's shaping up to be a nice rhumbliner. Anyone else want to prognosticate?
Click to expand...

It's way too early to forecast what will be happening Saturday afternoon.

That said, the long range grib model suggests a great circle route is possible.

Will be interesting to see how the start shapes up.

- rob
 
AlanH said:
Eh? I've only seen 72 hour GRIB forecasts. Where do you find the long-range ones?
Click to expand...

Send an email to [email protected], using anything in the subject line, and the body contains (in one line, no carriage return between 'send' and 'gfs') this:

send gfs:60N,5N,175W,75W|1,1|2,24,36,48,60,72,84,96,108,120,132,144,156,168,180,192,204

What you'll get back is a grib file from the gfs model, with 1 degree x 1 degree data, from 60Nx175W to 5Nx75W going out 204 hours in 12 hour increments.

- rob
 
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