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New Boat 4 Sled

6/17/18

6 days to the start of the SHTP. Good news is the fleet is fortunate to not have started last week during strong coastal northwesterlies that saw 2 of 5 Great Pacific Race rowing entries abandoned in their race from Monterey to Honolulu. 40% of your race fleet is a pretty substantial drop out rate. And yes, the abandoned boats are out there drifting, but well south of the SHTP track.

Further good news is the SHTP is fortunate not to have started this weekend, when a 1024 mb High is blocking the SHTP track and would cause a southerly detour.

ninetysix hour.gif

Even more good news is at this time there are no tropical systems forecast to form in the near future (48 hours) in the EPAC, off Mexico.

So, knowing that even the best weather forecasts for the EPAC are only accurate out 4-5 days, what might an optimum SHTP route look like if an imaginary J-105 were starting next Saturday, June 23, at noon? This chart is in the "best guess" department based on today's forecast for 144 hours in the future, with accuracy not guaranteed and "use at your own risk" assumed.

routing-jpg.JPG
 
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Race2Alaska aficionados are being treated to some superlative singlehanded performances.

Leading all day yesterday in smooth conditions was the pedal power only TAKE ME TO THE VOLCANO, Matt Johnson spinning merrily along right up the track at 3.5 knots.

Take-me-to-the-Volcano_R2AK.jpg

Also, in an amazing performance, is Josh Collins on Team TORRENT, an 18 foot Standup Paddleboard. Josh briefly took over the lead last night when TAKE ME TO THE VOLCANO stopped for a break. https://r2ak.com/2017-teams-stage-one/team-torrent/

torrent.png

This morning, out in front with a 6 mile lead over second place SAIL LIKE A GIRL, is Russell Brown on the G-32 catamaran Team PT WATERCRAFT. Russ's virtuoso performance is particularly fun to watch. This is a sailor with his act together, a well prepared and shaken down boat, an impressive new retractable and belt driven pedal drive that gives an honest 3 knots, the fastest bottom in the fleet, and a knowledge of both weather and what lies ahead. Russell even has two 15 mile shortcuts in his pocket that few know about, or would confidently risk.

Russell anchored for a rest last night in James Bay on the N. end of Prevost Island when the tidal current turned foul between 10 p.m. and 3 a.m. Even so, he is now currently stretching his boat-for-boat lead over the rest of the fleet.
http://tracker.r2ak.com/

Pt-Watercraft.png
 
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Stan Honey is a professional navigator/weatherman, SHTP winner, and genius at routing race boats across oceans. His Pacific Cup Weather Briefing is especially relevant to singlehanders racing to Hawaii and can be mined for nuggets both before and during your crossing. It can be found here https://pacificcup.org/sites/default/files/kbfiles/Pacific Cup Weather and Tactics.pdf

A caveat regarding this information. Stan is writing for fully crewed race boats, with full time navigators, professional foredeck crew, and plenty of power generation for downloading info onto computers running full time. This is not the case for singlehanders. The vocabulary of Stan's thesis is also not readily understandable for the average sailor.

But don't give up. Just because you won't likely be jibing "50 times" as Stan alludes to doesn't mean his suggestions are not relevant. Stan's first suggestion is going to be especially important this Saturday:

"Don't screw up the start, and get away for shore and out to the synoptic (gradient) wind before the evening glass off."

As often happens, the leading boats passing the Golden Gate accordion their leads over those left behind. This is because the breeze will lift (veer) and increase as you get more offshore. ("Rich get richer.")

Being slow out to the synoptic (gradient) wind just west of the Farallones will be fraught with danger this Saturday evening as a Southerly Surge builds northward along the coast, becalming those left behind as the wind turns southerly.

Its busy for everyone with only 5 days to go before the SHTP start. But not too early or late to begin thinking about the weather you will encounter the first 4-5 days. And no, I must say I am sorry, but I will not be offering suggested routing at Friday's Weather Briefing, just comments on the current and forecast weather likely encountered enroute. Your routing will be up to you, as you best understand the capabilities of yourself and your boat.
 
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5 days to the start of the SHTP. Further good news. Once away from the coast and into the synoptic (gradient) breeze of "Windy Lane" past the Farallones, it looks like a fast race weather wise with a well developed EPAC High of 1030 mb anchored north of track. A hypothetical singlehanded J-105 could expect to be sipping maitais at Hanalei in 12.5 days, the night of July 5th, given today's information.

No tropical formation in the EPAC forecast for the next 5 days, i.e. no tropical storms or hurricanes anywhere in sight.

Here's the 96 hour surface map:

Ninetysix hour 2.gif

And here is hypothetical routing for a singlehanded J-105 projected to start noon on Saturday, June 23. Take this with a grain of salt. I would probably be dipping a bit further south in the reaching breeze of days 1-3, adding distance in return for more speed and comfort.

Routing 6-17.JPG
 
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The box on the 96 hour surface chart that blots out the Gate says DVLPG GALE. And according to ECMWF said gale will be fully developed by Saturday evening, with 30 kts of wind and 13 ft seas on an 8 second period. Assuming ECMWF is talking about the "significant wave height" that NOAA uses (average height of highest 1/3 of waves), this portends a one-in-one hundred wave nearly 22 ft high about every 13 minutes.

I'm very glad to have seen close to that on the last push up the coast at the end of May. We were motor sailing with a double reef in the main, wind and waves about 20 degrees off the port bow. It was not hard to envision the ride if we had hung a left and pointed towards Hawaii -- and it certainly seemed that Morning Star was up to the challenge.
 
It looks as if you guys are going to have a fast race. Those with windvanes will definitely be encouraged to use them. I say the first 5-7 days will be a challenge and after that you're all going to be flying by the seat of your pants in warm trades blowing 20-25 all the way to Hanalei. You can all do it! Have fun, be safe and encourage one another. I will definitely be watching.
 
4 days to the start of the SHTP. It looks like Aeolus, who has yet to appear for the Race2Alaska fleet, will find the SHTP straight away, and give them a blistering ride toward the island of mai tais and coconuts.

Aeolus.jpg

Not much change since yesterday. Here's the 96 hour forecast, which means this is the weather chart for Saturday, the day of the SHTP start.

ninetysix hour3.gif

The only question mark I see at this time is the location of the "TROF" over the Central Calif. Coast. The closer this trough to the coast, the more likely there might be a "Southerly Surge" moving up the coast from S.Cal, potentially bringing southerly winds immediately adjacent to shore. We will not know until later whether this Southerly Surge will appear off SF.

50-60 miles offshore it's bolt your socks on. MORNING STAR is gonna like this: 25 knots of wind on the beam. Make sure your solar panels are tied with a safety line to the boat. I once had mine hydroplaning astern by its cord. Yiii Doggies.

It continues to look like a 12 day passage for my imaginary singlehanded J-105, a strong EPAC High solid and remaining north of the track.

routing-6-23.JPG

Here's a happy thought for DOLFIN, and everyone: A slim, almost non-exisistant chance of any tropicals influencing the race track. No cross swells from TS and hurricanes south of the fleet. These cross swells typically plague a trans-Pac 50% of the races.

And here's a science note for Carlianne on KYNNTANA. A 1979 NOAA Pilot chart shows the EPAC currents running .3 to .5 knots in your favor. That's just the drift current. Wind driven surface current can double that. For the first 4 days, with current on the beam or just aft, an allowance might be made for up to 12-15 miles of southerly set. That's a couple of degrees on the compass.

Current.jpg

I'm sorry to see the Moore 24 HOLOKIKI no longer listed as an entry. Presumably RR was unable to complete a qualifier in time?
 
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Howard Spruit said:
My first take?!

• Huge cabin with comfortable cruising accommodations

Obviously… A huge cabin on a 15 foot boat is questionable.

I think this boat can be sailed very fast in a wide variety of conditions.

It looks to me that keeping it healed to 15+ degrees in light air will be required to minimize wetted surface.

The advertised weight is similar to a 505, and it has more sail area, so it should have speed potential.

HOWEVER, when rowing or pedaling the boat will be flat in the water, dragging it's tail, so a good skipper will learn to optimize light air sailing, mabie even rig the pedal power to function at a 15+ degree angle of heal.
Click to expand...

Interesting take on a 15 footer compared to the River of Grass that I am building. It looks like it would haul ass, but in something like the R2AK would a singlehander benefit from an easier de-powered, simpler rig and 70 pounds of lead in the centerboard in the long haul?

RoG weighs 475 lbs and only carries 150 sq' upwind and down (although I plan a spinny option) compared to 350 lbs and 200 sq' up and 420 sq' down!
RoG has port and starboard water ballast at 80 lbs each, not sure what the Skate uses.

Do I see trap gear on the Skate? Bedard designed the RoG mizzen with a re-enforcement in the Mizzen mast for trapeze. Wow!

I would love to hear Howard's and Sled's and other's takes on these two designs.
 
Thanks for the update Skip, and for reducing (but not eliminating) the influence of tropicals on our path. Now if you can just keep the wind in the range of oh maybe 18-25kts most of the way this could be a pretty fun race.

Bill
 
That 35 knot barb looks like some kinda fun!

Windy shows a southerly surge building along the coast after midnight Saturday/Sunday am.

Lets see what develops .
 
Tchoupitoulas said:
RoG weighs 475 lbs and only carries 150 sq' upwind and down (although I plan a spinny option) compared to 350 lbs and 200 sq' up and 420 sq' down!
Click to expand...
.

I had a real nice conversation with Jo, the skipper of Kairos in the R2AK. He had very interesting and complimentary things to say about the RoG. Once I get some time I'll transcribe what he said and post it here. In the meantime, here's his little vessel at 4:15 am just before he tucked into the water.
 

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3 days to start of 2018 SHTP.
Not much change in race forecast. It would be difficult to dial a better forecast, assuming reaching for 3 days in 20-25 knots is your cup tea.

Here is the 96 hour surface forecast. Whoever drew the map managed to rudely blank out our area of offshore Central CA interest with a "1007" tag.

Ninetysix hour4.gif

My imaginary singlehanded J-105 continues to speed along to Hanalei in about 12.5 days. It doesn't have to deviate much from Dead Down Wind (DDW) on the second half of the course. A broad 1032 EPAC High should be centered about 40.5 N x 138 W for the early and middle parts of the race.

Still no tropical activity to worry about.

Route 6-20.JPG

Getting out of SF Bay Saturday afternoon shouldn't be too tough. Present forecast is for "Variable winds less than 5 kt becoming NW 7 to 12 kt in the afternoon. Sunny." 85 degrees forecast for Tiburon. Hot inland, with triple digits temps.

Is your baro calibrated? Oakland Airport on VHF weather radio is best local source. At this time, no need to try and reset the ship's barometer if its not reading nearly the same as Oakland. Rather, note the error, and add/subtract the difference for each logged reading.

Typically, the baro will slowly rise as one sails SW. When halfway, and having entered the trades, the barometric pressure will then slowly begin to fall for the rest of the trip
 
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Skip, thanks for the update again. What worries me (there's always something) is the cut-off low that appears Saturday night and moves west, maybe faster than we do. It would be sad for anyone to get trapped in it so near the start. The "fast" boats get to start first and have the best chance of avoiding it. Doesn't seem fair for us "slower" boats.

Bill
 
dolfinbill said:
Skip, thanks for the update again. What worries me (there's always something) is the cut-off low that appears Saturday night and moves west, maybe faster than we do. It would be sad for anyone to get trapped in it so near the start. The "fast" boats get to start first and have the best chance of avoiding it. Doesn't seem fair for us "slower" boats.

Bill
Click to expand...

Hi Bill,
Not strictly a cutoff low, but a weather phenomena called a "southerly surge" or trough of low pressure ("trof") on the lee side (ocean side) of the coast range during inland high pressure and heat events that initiate offshore flow. This trof brings a tongue of southerly winds, fog bank, and shallow marine layer (stratus) up the coast from S.Cal. Not a good scenario for the start of a race to Hawaii. But common.

southerly surge.GIF

I have not seen the start order. You are correct. Being 15 minutes late, ~2 miles, could be the difference between being shot out of a cannon and left in the p-nut butter. We won't know until Saturday whether and when a southerly surge will appear.

I've been lobbying to start the slower boats first for a year. There is no reason they shouldn't be. C'est La Vie.
 
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Happy Solstice!

Who would have thought the Race2Alaska lead would be a battle between 3 mono-hulls, two of whom were built here in Santa Cruz.

An Olson 30, Team LAGOPUS is 3rd. the Melges 32 SAIL LIKE A GIRL is 2nd. And the wildcard is Team WILDCARD, a $2,000 Craigs List Santa Cruz 27 in the lead. Who said pigs can't fly? (Did I mention WILDCARD has a 240 pound crew member who likes to sit comfortably off the boat, slung in a trapeze?) Crazy stuff, like a 50 year old Columbia 50 just winning overall honors in the Bermuda Race.

http://tracker.r2ak.com/
 
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