New Boat 4 Sled

[sleddog]

Excellent SHTP news is, except for RAINBOW, HULA, and SEA WISDOM, the fleet has negotiated the pesky low pressure, emerged on its western flank, and entered the NNW synoptic wind of Windy Lane, next stop Hanalei Bay.

And there goes Hobie 33 ALOHA, doing what she does best, planing off the wind. Aloha, ALOHA. Catch her if you can.

 

[Dazzler]

Barlovento

BARLOVENTO (not to be confused with the Rhodes ketch BARLOVENTO II) abandoned off Crescent City, CA.

From WOODEN BOAT:

Design Specs
LOA: 64′ 5″
Beam: 15′ 6″
LWL: 50′ 0″
Draft: 9′ 6″

Design or Class: Keel schooner

Home Port: Poulsbo, WA

Designer: Cox & Stevens

Rig: Schooner

Gross Displacement: 38

Sail Area: 2565

Number of Engines: 1

Engine Model: Perkins

Total Engine Horsepower: 145

Fuel Type: Diesel

Builder Name: F.F. Pendleton

Location Built: Wiscasset ME

Year Built: 1932

BARLOVENTO has a Facebook page that indicates the boat was bought by some Germans in 2018. They did a lot of work to the boat including a haulout at Port Townsend. The boat was re-launched only 6 days ago on 15 June.
https://www.facebook.com/barloventoschooner/

 

[sleddog]

Excellent SHTP news is, except for RAINBOW, HULA, and SEA WISDOM, the fleet has negotiated the pesky low pressure, emerged on its western flank, and entered the NNW synoptic wind of Windy Lane, next stop Hanalei Bay.

Not quite so fast, Sleddog. Over the next 3 days, the EPAC Pacific High is forecast to weaken from 1029mb to 1025mb. As well, it will be nudged east by a slow moving cold front to its west. The result is the prevailing northerlies will soften and the race is now to get south, to 26 degrees, where the tradewinds lie.

The two race leaders, ALOHA and MOUNTAIN, are closest to HAWAII, with BUFFALO not far behind. But may be uncertain of what lies ahead in 2-3 days. NNE breeze 10 knots and less.

Farther east, NOZOMI and SIREN are sailing within sight of each other. And though 25 miles further from Hawaii than MOUNTAIN and ALOHA, may have a more advantageous, "outside" slotcar lane in the days to come...

Here's the 96 hour prog for Saturday morning. The closer the isobars, the steeper the gradient, the stronger the High = the more the wind. Generally, the best wind near the High on its southern side is along the 1020 isobar.

Forecasting beyond 96 hours begins to lose accuracy, especially around high pressures, whose perimeters can be like jello and change overnight. Thus the 1015 mb Low and accompanying front west of the High is squeezing the high into a N/S ridge.

 

[sleddog]

I've been asked by fans of SHARK ON BLUEGRASS, an Olson 25 and the smallest but theoretically not the slowest boat in the 2021 fleet, "how many hours do the different boats owe SOB on corrected time?"
The rated course length is 2120 miles, though most boats will sail 100-200 miles more.
SOB started 3rd Class and is owed an additional 10 minutes by Kane Class boats, and 5 minutes by Lono Class.

I pulled out my trusty slide rule, and here, unofficially, is what each boat owes SOB rounded to the nearest hour with the starting differences taken into account.

ALOHA= 53 hours; MOUNTAIN and NORTHERN STAR = 50 hours; BUFFALO, NOZOMI, and SIREN=27 hours; SEA WISDOM=20 hours; and SOB owes HULA 14 hours.

If you don't like these numbers, as Scoop Nisker used to tell us, "go out and make some of your own." And remember, as my good friend Skeeter would always remind, "don't let Bruce put the nibble on ya."[

ATTACH=CONFIG]6556[/ATTACH]

 

[Philpott]

Thanks, Skip!

 

[AntsUiga]

It is great to have Skip to answer questions.

The Jibeset race tracker has a link that says 'show wing'. Actually, it means show wind and provides an overlay of the current windy predicted conditions and windy forecast. For a quick view, it show what the direction of the wind is for each boat ( more or less).

Skip's weather briefing and long term history suggests following the 1025 millibar line (there was a strong suggestion to calibrate your reliable scientific barometer).

The question - even though the windy site shows wind speed and direction, I don't know of any portion of the windy program that gives millibar information.

Should we use the windy information for simplified understanding, or is there anything useful to make sailing decisions from windy site?

Ants

 

[sleddog]

It is great to have Skip to answer questions.
Skip's weather briefing and long term history suggests following the 1025 millibar line (there was a strong suggestion to calibrate your reliable scientific barometer).
The question - even though the windy site shows wind speed and direction, I don't know of any portion of the windy program that gives millibar information.
Should we use the windy information for simplified understanding, or is there anything useful to make sailing decisions from windy site?
Ants

Ants,

Excellent questions. I did say the center of the current EPAC High will likely deflate in pressure to 1025 mb. The old saw from races past is to follow the 1020 isobar and curve around the bottom of the EPAC High. That is only partially true, and depends on the strength and position of the EPAC High and the quality and accuracy of your ship's barometer. The stronger the High, and the further north it lies, determines how straight for the finish you can sail.

There are many sites that give surface pressure progs. Windy has them, lower right, where you can choose "show isolines of pressure." Perhaps even easier, and adjustable to dates in the future, are the
PredictWind maps. These are free also and you chose "isobar maps" on the left side.

Other sites I favor are FNMOC, the U.S Navy forecast office in Monterey has pressure maps. As well, PassageWeather.com has pressure map forecasts out 10 days.

Lastly, the old standby, classic Weatherfax maps are easy to read, show fronts and movements of highs, lows, tropicals, fog, and ship reports, etc. I would receive these 2-3 x/day over WILDFLOWER's ham radio and could have printed them if I had a printer. These maps are made by the National Weather Service, Ocean Prediction Center, here: https://ocean.weather.gov/Pac_tab.php. And are available out to 96 hours.

Now if you want to run a routing program using GRIB files like Expedition or PredictWind use, that is going to cost $, $$, or $$$ depending. Maybe PJ will drop by and tell us what routing software he runs on CaB.

 

[sleddog]

Some changes overnight in the corrected time leaders (unofficial, and just my opinion, as always.) #1 ALOHA is being well sailed, and running away with the race. #2 GREEN BUFFALO is being well sailed, and sailing a shorter route than #3 which is a tie between NOZOMI and SIREN, sailing boat-for-boat, with NOZOMI just slightly faster.

SHARK and HULA remain in contention, but have to watch to not fall off the train in lighter conditions ahead.

 

[Xavier]

Based on the tracker and wind model overlay, Aloha’s jibes don’t make sense to me. So I assume the actual wind angles are significantly different from the model. Is that how others see it too, or am I missing something (used to that).

 

[dolfinbill]

I think it's more like Aloha's tracker doesn't always send out accurate positions.

 

[Xavier]

I think it's more like Aloha's tracker doesn't always send out accurate positions.

Yikes! - hadn’t considered that.

 

[sleddog]

Based on the tracker and wind model overlay, Aloha’s jibes don’t make sense to me. So I assume the actual wind angles are significantly different from the model. Is that how others see it too, or am I missing something (used to that).

ALOHA's tracker is giving occasional erratic positions, as is PERPLEXITY. ALOHA has not yet jibed. The reason for tracker malfunction often has to do with location of tracker mounting, being obscured by carbon sails, solar panels, etc.

You can expect the model and actual wind angles to be pretty similar, as they are now in the "synoptic" aka "gradient" wind.

A couple of observations: the two Cal-40's, not unexpectedly, are sailing at almost identical speeds. GREEN BUFFALO is the only boat in the fleet with an extra long, carbon fiber, mast head wand for wind instrumentation. This will give more accurate readings down the road, as soon as the wind comes aft. Short, forward facing, wind instrument wands at the masthead begin to be interfered with when the wind is dead aft. Before extended length wands, for Transpacs, we'd always aim our masthead wand aft.

All WILDFLOWER, my 27 foot sloop, had at the masthead was a Windex mounted above the tricolor. The top of the tricolor was modified with a clear, 2" diameter window so light illuminated the WINDEX above it. The VHF antenna was also up there, but angled back at 45 degrees to clear the Windex. Instruments? We didn't have no stinkin' instruments. White, .5 oz, hot-knifed, custom telltales were a better indicator for downwind steering on a dark night than the delay of electronic instrumentation giving you vertigo. On PYEWACKET, on a downwind race on a dark night, I once watched a helmsman steering to the TWA( True Wind Angle) readout. He didn't realize it was not the TWA he was steering to, but the depth contour.

 

[sleddog]

The 2021 SHTP is about to experience "you can't get there from here" as they sail into the SE ridge (lobe) of a weakening (deflated)1025 Mb EPAC High pressure west of 130 degrees, a broad expanse of mostly northerly winds, 10 knots and less. As there will now be breaks in the mostly cloudy skies, warmer and smoother waters, puffy streaks of wind, and a full moon, light air sails will be broken out, if not already.

Initially, the boats to the north look OK. At some point the southern side will pay big time. Exiting from the SE ridge are the tradewinds, down around 27 degrees south. But getting towards there will be happening slowly, at least until Saturday, when the winds begin to slowly build as the EPAC high begins to strengthen again.

Currently, as boat speeds drop to 5 knots and less, it's ALOHA's race to lose. I expect Kyle's light air track shoes to serve him well in the next few days of sailing down the chosen slot car lanes. Can BUFFALO make the northern side work? His lead is tenuous..

Here's the 48 hour chart for Saturday night. Warning to viewers, this may be difficult to watch:

 

[WBChristie]

Jibeset shows PHRF ratings .... have these rating replaced the previous PCR ratings?

 

[sleddog]

Jibeset shows PHRF ratings .... have these rating replaced the previous PCR ratings?

Negatory. Jibeset show the SHTPR ratings (same as PCR) under the Sailing Instructions, Appendix A. PHRF ratings are what was required on your race entry to configure the SHTPR. Misleading I know. Even a member of the Race Organizers didn't know the Race is being sailed under SHTPR. Pass the word.

 

[WBChristie]

Jibeset most definitely shows phrf ratings on the entry list....but the estimated finish etc must be calculated using PCR. The tracker really sucks....surely having the update times the same and synchronized first ping wouldn't be that hard to accomplish.

Negatory. Jibeset show the SHTPR ratings (same as PCR) under the Sailing Instructions, Appendix A. PHRF ratings are what was required on your race entry to configure the SHTPR. Misleading I know. Even a member of the Race Organizers didn't know the Race is being sailed under SHTPR. Pass the word.

 

[Philpott]

Jibeset most definitely shows phrf ratings on the entry list....but the estimated finish etc must be calculated using PCR. The tracker really sucks....surely having the update times the same and synchronized first ping wouldn't be that hard to accomplish.

Dear Sir
Perhaps you would like to produce the tracker and overlays for the next SHTP? We would gladly pay you the same as we pay Ray.

 

[WBChristie]

Dear Sir
Perhaps you would like to produce the tracker and overlays for the next SHTP? We would gladly pay you the same as we pay Ray.

Ah! its free......ok...point taken and sorry for coming across as an ingrate. What did the yellow brick setup cost? The synchronized ping would cost nothing BTW....and improve the tracker immeasurably. That is out of the developers hands.

 

[sleddog]

The first SHTP, in 1978, was organized solely by George Sigler, a Navy reserve pilot, but non-racer. George did understand we needed handicaps, and the only handicap system open to all was PHRF. It was quickly determined that PHRF in a downwind race to Hawaii penalizes the heavier boats that don't surf or plane like ultralight sleds (ULDB's)

The Pacific Cup race first held in 1980, also to Kauai, had this figured out and came up with a rating system based on PHRF called the PCR, that evened things between heavy boats and light boats pretty darn well and is used to this day by both the Pacific Cup and SHTP. The formula for the PCR, and its sister the SHTPR, modifies the PHRF based on length and displacement/length ratio and can be found in Section 15.04 of the Sailing Instructions.

This explanation is simplistic, but that's it in a nutshell how the handicaps work in this race.

 

[BobJ]

Regarding Yellow Brick, I recall the club getting an additional $7,200 bill from YB after a SHTP. Not expected and definitely not in the budget!

If every boat used the same device it would be possible to sync up the pings. But they don't, and the skippers had to buy them so it's their call. Look at it as a chance to do some math to extrapolate the necessary positions. Maybe create a spreadsheet to automate the adjustments?

Regarding the ratings, the Fleet Assignments page on Jibeset shows the SHTPR's in the Rating column.

Skip, Pacific Cup uses NorCal PHRF's "Downwind Ratings." That's the same system that when new, shot us in the shorts in the 2011 Spinnaker Cup! Jim A has refined the numbers since then.
.