New Boat 4 Sled

[H Spruit]

The toilet seat 30 is what they nick named the boat.

I thought you asked what the Hawaiians nick named George,after a trans pac that he sailed on Art Behl's Cal 37 Quasar, because he was a soft spoken, friendly guy with a big smile and of coarse he was an excellent craftsman.

"Menehune" Min a who knee?
My mistake.

 

[sleddog]

The Bugliters of 2016 are getting a menu of fresh trades, NE 20-25, even 30 knots. I'm doubting but the intrepid few can hold spinnakers at night in these conditions. Poled out jibs will be the clothing of choice.

For us shoreside, SHTP 2016 speculation is about to increase. Who and when will be first to the Hanalei finish? And who will take the overall top prize for first on corrected (handicap) time?

The four boat-for-boat leaders, KATO, VENTUS, DOMINO, and NINA now (noon, 7/11) have less than 800 miles to go to the finish.

I was going to say KATO, the O-30, looks like a lock to be first-to-finish early Friday. Good on Jiri continuing to sail a smart race, staying in breeze, and sailing fewer miles than most. If, and it's a big IF, KATO can keep the pressure on without blowing the steam gauge/redline, KATO could win the SHTP overall.

Some 85 miles behind KATO is DOMINO, David's Wilderness-30. DOMINO's handicap of 136 sec/mile receives 37 seconds/mile from KATO's handicap of 99 seconds/mile. This is because KATO is a lighter, faster boat, with more sail area.

KATO owes DOMINO 21.2 hours for the SHTP course of 2120 miles. At a 7.5 knot average for the remaining runway, KATO would have to finish ~159 miles ahead of DOMINO to win. KATO is currently only 85 miles ahead of DOMINO. KATO needs to gain another 75 miles in the next four days to have a chance of beating DOMINO. That's about 19 miles/day, for the next four days, KATO will have to gain on DOMINO to have a chance of winning the whole bowl of poi.

Between the lead boats and the finish lies a possible wildcard. The remnants of ex-Tropical Storm Blas are forecast to be over the Hawaiian Island chain Thursday. These remnants, squally conditions with little wind, are traveling in a low pressure trough, forecast to depress the tradewinds to 10 knots near Kauai on Thursday. And 10-15 knots on Friday.

It ain't over 'til Iz sings.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWtNtO5ELQw

 

[BobJ]

Then TS Celia is projected to visit the fleet over the weekend.

This is reminding me of our less-than-great Pac Cup in 2014.
.

 

[sleddog]

Then TS Celia is projected to visit the fleet over the weekend.

I'm optimistic. The National Hurricane Center, and other forecast offices, are in good agreement about the potential track and intensity of Celia.

Once Celia gets up towards 20N, cooler ocean temps should cause Celia to weaken.

Below is the forecast positions/intensity as provided by the NHC. I'll go out on a bowsprit and guess that if Celia has any interaction with the SHTP fleet still at sea, that it will be as a TD (Tropical Depression), with max winds of 34 knots.

In 1978 the SHTP fleet, including myself, had TD Carlotta pass overhead. She was more rain than wind.

CELIA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 15.1N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 15.5N 126.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 16.1N 128.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 17.1N 130.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 18.2N 132.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 20.1N 136.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 21.1N 140.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 21.6N 145.8W 40 KT 45 MPH

The SHTP fleet will be approaching Hanalei from the northeast. Hanalei lies at
22-14N x 159-30W, 765 miles west of the 120 hour position of the center of what remains of Celia, forecast to be 40 knot max winds at that time. At 10-12 knots forward speed, it will take Celia another 3 days to get anywhere near Kauai. Unlikely there will be much, if any, rotation left by that time.

Could be wrong.

 

[sleddog]

It's going to be a nailbiter for who wins SHTP '16 overall. KATO has 496 miles to go to Hanalei, and Jiri looks to finish first on Friday. DOMINO has 611 miles to go, and is 115 miles behind KATO. That's straight-line miles. But the leaders are jibing downwind, at up to 60 degrees off DDW course. That's gonna add distance to the finish.

Between KATO and DOMINO are VENTUS and NINA. NINA, on port jibe, just passed ahead of DOMINO on starboard jibe. Astern of DOMINO, hauling the mail, is our own webmaster on TEMERITY. Sounds like David has had plenty of excitement!

Winds are in the 18-22 knot range from the ENE, and they are surfing along at 7.5 to 8 knots average.


All Quiet from the Western Front.

 

[sleddog]

Early this morning, KATO lies 389 miles from Hanalei, and is gaining 10-12 miles/day on DOMINO, who is 510 miles from Hanalei. The difference is 121 miles, or about 17-18 hours at 7 knots speed average.

KATO owes DOMINO 21 hours, 12 minutes handicap. KATO needs to pick up 4-5 hours in the next two days to win.

Currently the tradewinds are forecast to be NE-E, 15 knots. Squally weather associated with the passing of the remnants of ex-hurricane Blas.

Boat speed average of KATO and DOMINO towards Hanalei should be in the 6.5-7.0 knot range. It's all gonna come down to 1) who can fly their spinnaker the longest without a break. 2) who gets the squalls (can be a good thing, or bad thing). 3) what time they approach the nearshore waters of the North Shore of Kauai, where late night and early morning winds can be notoriously light, even offshore, up to 10 miles out.

It's all coming down to the next 48 hours. Good Luck, Guys!

 

[sleddog]

Not owning a TV, I'd be the last to know Capitola Wharf made the national news last evening. An "ambitious" great white lifted the bow of a 16 foot fishing skiff 4 feet out of the water, almost swamping the stern. The commercial fisherman aboard estimated the "piece of the landscape" was about 15 feet long. The attack took place 1/4 mile south of the Capitola Wharf.

I rode my bike down and saw the skiff this morning, and the bite marks. The shark also left a tooth embedded in the wood hull. Later yesterday afternoon, the shark visited another fishing skiff, jumping out of the water alongside. A third fisherman reported the great white aggressively circling his boat, so he fed it squid. "He was there and he splashed the boat and got me all wet," Larson said of the shark. "It was pretty cool."

In my opinion, feeding an aggressive great white from aboard your small boat definitely qualifies you as a Candidate for the Darwin Award.

http://www.mercurynews.com/pets-ani...at-white-shark-cruising-capitola-waters-bites

 

[BobJ]

Down in the heavily-carpeted end of the building (that race where they have BMW concierge service and $50 pu-pu's) two boats have lost rigs - the Cal 40 PSYCHE and the Express 27 ALTERNATE REALITY. Based on their names are these boats related?

 

[sleddog]

You get the feeling the Bugliters, aka "Squall Busters," are beginning to exhaust their reserves and feeling effects of heat, dehydration, and interrupted sleep when racers are sending e-mails advertising their ETA contest to win the world's ugliest Arrow tie. No worries, normal stuff. I've seen boats arrive at Hanalei carrying a lawn mower, a deflated blowup doll, and a saddle and spurs. Sailing to Hanalei with a wardrobe of ties sounds like normal stuff. Wait a few more days....they'll be seeing icey umbrella drinks in their dreams.

If you can't be at Hanalei to welcome the arrivals and join in the festivities under the Tree, here are two webcams that look out over the finish line area:

This down near the beach, looking over the Hanalei pier. The finish line is on the right of the webcam screen. http://www.balihai.com/Blog/kauai-hd-webcam/ Check out the whitecaps kicking up from the afternoon 18-20 knot tradewinds out in the distance.

This above Hanalei, looking northwest towards Bali Hai. Again the finish line is towards the right side of the screen. (Kauai is 3 hours earlier in time than CA. 10 pm in CA is 7 pm sunset in Kauai.) http://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/hanalei-bay-resort

Squalls lurk: http://www.kitv.com/category/306385/live-radar

 

[Dazzler]

Sled, have you seen the photo of the Cal 40 PSYCHE's mast failure (in PacCup)? I know you know a thing or two about Cal 40's. WTF? What happened? Torqued the rig? Amazing that it's still standing.

https://billyspaccup.com

Tom P.
CLOUD

 

[sleddog]

To close to call: At 9 pm this Wed. evening, KATO leads DOMINO by 123 miles, having gained 8 miles during the last 164 miles. KATO has 279 miles to go, and at the current rate, could gain another 14 miles before her finish. That would have KATO finishing 137 miles ahead of DOMINO, and DOMINO needing to average 6.5 knots to win.

My guess is KATO will reach HANALEI just after sunrise on Friday, HST.

One squall will make or break this race for the mai tais.

 

[BobJ]

Bob's prognostications (as of Wed. night):

KATO needs to finish ahead of DOMINO by 21 hrs. 47 min. to beat him. At a half-knot speed difference KATO will eek it out by less than 15 minutes.
VENTUS needs to finish ahead of KATO by 4 hrs. 7 min. to beat him. At a quarter-knot speed difference VENTUS will come up short by an hour.
VENTUS needs to finish ahead of DOMINO by 25 hrs. 55 min. to beat him. At a 3/4 knot speed difference VENTUS will come up short by 7 hours.

So it will be KATO, DOMINO, VENTUS. But NINA is averaging a full knot faster than KATO and could sneak in between DOMINO and VENTUS for third.

For the Westsail fans, SARABAND is about 15 hours out of the hunt for first overall. The first 2-3 days killed those guys.

Re PSYCHE, I'm told Buzz Ballenger hates painted masts - he much prefers anodized. I can see why.
.

 

[sleddog]

Bob's prognostications (as of Wed. night):
KATO needs to finish ahead of DOMINO by 21 hrs. 47 min. to beat him.

RAGTIME: thank you for correcting my error in the corrected time difference between KATO and DOMINO. 21 hours, 47 minutes it is.... my bad.

"For the Westsail fans, SARABAND is about 15 hours out of the hunt for first overall. The first 2-3 days killed those guys."

I think starting the slowest boats first, not last, would give them an extra boost out to the windline near the Farallones, The windline moved west and the slow boats couldn't catch it, but the fast ones did. This is a common situation.

 

[BobJ]

KATO's slowdown overnight has changed my prognostications. I hope it's temporary. Olson 30's have this thing they do at about this point in a Hawaii race. Not much risk to the skipper but it sure screws up your race. I hope that didn't happen.

 

[Philpott]

KATO's slowdown overnight has changed my prognostications. I hope it's temporary. Olson 30's have this thing they do at about this point in a Hawaii race. Not much risk to the skipper but it sure screws up your race. I hope that didn't happen.

Command central here, Bob. Do we need to prepare w a defibrillater? Kahuna suggests you are referring to the wind shift, which is not unique to Olsons. Please explain to the audience.

 

[BobJ]

He's back up to speed so forget I said anything. I don't want to jinx it.

 

[BobJ]

This is quite a horse race. It's back to Commodore Dave after the last set of pings.

 

[sleddog]

As a dear Hanalei friend (a non-sailor) said last night, "Are the boat people arriving?"

Indeed they are. Hanalei is filling with expectant family and friends of the Bugliters, not the least of whom are the hard-working SSS Race Committee and it's welcoming committee.

Last evening at sunset, a large squall hula danced over Hanalei Bay, dumping enough rain to temporarily flood streets. As the dark squall with its vertical fingers moved on down the Napali, a double rainbow, and a dozen new waterfalls appeared over the ridges and cliffs. Nearshore, the tradewinds went light in the wake of the squall. Offshore in the distance, a large naval vessel was silhouetted, steaming east at a good clip, part of the RIMPAC exercises.

This morning at 0130 Hawaiian time, KATO is only 48 miles from the SHTP finish line off Pu'u Poa Point. A mid-morning finish can be expected for Jiri. Only 14 miles astern of the newly restored KATO, Chris on VENTUS has made miles overnight. Chris should sail his J-88 into Hanalei about 2 hours after KATO.

Robert's Olson-29 NINA is 93 miles out, charging hard on port jibe as he drops down from the North.

And 182 miles out, 134 miles behind KATO, comes David on DOMINO on his vintage Wilderness-30. Despite bleeding miles overnight, DOMINO remains in contention for the overall win. But David will now have to average over 6 knots to the finish for the win, an increasing challenge in the currently prevailing light to moderate tradewinds of 10-15 knots and the frequent squalls of the remnants of ex-tropical depression Blas now crossing the area.

The Mai-Tai's are being chilled. Here's a view from atop the cliffs near Pu'u Poa Point yesterday afternoon, overlooking the finish line, before the sunset squall darkened the sky and soaked the island landscape.
("Pu'u" means mountain, and "Poa" is a shortening of "Pa'ao," meaning "Staff of the Fire Godess, Pele." What a perfect name for the finish line of the Singlehanded Transpac!)

 

[BobJ]

Did I hear that The General and The General's Daughter are sailing over? If so, how are they doing?

 

[sleddog]

Jiri's in!

This morning while swimming off Hideaways at Pu'u Poa Pt., I looked up to see a sail 2 miles to windward (NE). "Wow, here comes Jiri!"

The Tracker had been offline, and distance off had only been an estimate by DR . The RC down in Hanalei Viullage has reported being up much of the night, partly while climbing a muddy slope to establish a higher vantage for their Yagi Antenna. At 20 miles, the RC could hear KATO. KATO could not hear the RC.

Taken from water level, without a compass to verify, my unofficial estimate of KATO's finish is 0810 HST. Jiri crossed on port tack, beam reaching under white sails, 1/2 mile offshore, in 14-16 knots of wind, making 7-8 knots.

CONGRATULATIONS and Aloha!!!!!!

VENTUS should be finishing momentarily.

DOMINO was ~ 140 miles astern at KATO's finish. Dave has to average 6.4 knots to win. Doable.