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The Polars Expedition

Then you answered your own question. These are NorCal PHRF adjustments, not SHTP.

Why don't you pick up a cheap Olson 30 and do the race again?

Not really, unless the NCPHRF committee came up with the formula you just emailed me.
So the two O30 results one above the other In the top 10 are not apples to apples. Taking nothing away from Philippe's performance.
 
If you compared the two boats' PHRF certificates, I'm sure you'd find the rating difference was accounted for. Any difference in the PHRF rating causes the same difference in the ultimate SHTP rating.

My observation at the time was that Philippe won overall because he slipped through before the low enveloped the rest of the fleet. In fact, he was able to win the race without ever hoisting a spinnaker. Ratings were almost irrelevant at that point.
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If you compared the two boats' PHRF certificates, I'm sure you'd find the rating difference was accounted for. Any difference in the PHRF rating causes the same difference in the ultimate SHTP rating.

My observation at the time was that Philippe won overall because he slipped through before the low enveloped the rest of the fleet. In fact, he was able to win the race without ever hoisting a spinnaker. Ratings were almost irrelevant at that point.
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Are you being obtuse? :) One sailed with a non engine rating of 96, and the other sailed with no engine and gained 3 seconds a mile.
 
If you say so. I haven't seen their PHRF certificates.

You are causing me to not give a crap.
 
Are you being obtuse? One sailed with a non engine rating of 96, and the other sailed with no engine and gained 3 seconds a mile.
There is no rating credit for "non-engine" in PHRF..... unless you are talking about inboard vs. outboard. Olsons in general do not have an inboard.

The <125% jib credit used to be 6 sec/mile and in the late 90s(??) PHRF lowered it to 3 sec/mile.

The only rating adjustment the SSS uses is one developed for the PacCup..... which again takes into account planning vs. non-planning hulls (ie how heavy the boat is). This is very similar to the Downwind ratings that have been developed by the PHRF.

In 2018 the Olsons were the fastest boats in the fleet which is very rare. However sailing an Olson is no guarantee of success.

Please take a look at these historical results which have Olson 30s all over it.

http://sfbaysss.org/shtp2018/2018/07/17/forty-years-of-shtp-results/

I'd say based on the 21x times I count the Olson 30s have competed in the race it hasn't done very well at all. The overall winners seem to be NOT Olson 30s.... in fact it seems displacement boats have a better chance.

Here are the overall winners I gathered:
Islander 36, Cal 40(2x), Olson 30(3x), Wylie 27, Wilderness 30, J/120, Erikson 35mkII, Spenser 35, Black Soo 30, Baltic 38, 30Sq.Meter, Newland 36, Freedom 44, Carlson 29, Wylie 34, Golden Gate 25, Santa Cruz 27.
 
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So if your complaint the Olson 30 is unfairly rated you are wrong. They show up to SSS races (and crewed races) all the time and don't always do well, actually quite the opposite. Boats that rate 200+ PHRF usually are not on the corrected podium in the SHTP..... in fact never from what I can tell. That is the nature of the beast.... or course as it were.

You can count on the SSS never issuing ratings. I survived being commodore when the Wyliecat 30s were the big bone of contention.... many were up in arms for years. The Wyliecat 30 is a simple boat to sail with zero sail choices and only reefs @ 25-30k+ and can be sailed to its crewed rating singlehanded, which is very rare.
 
Seems quite bizarre that a boat that has won the race multiple times gets a ratings break, but heavier displacement boats like Jim Kellams boat, a Spencer 35 has his rating dropped 37 seconds because he won the race?
The SSS hasn't given the Olson 30 a rating "break", ever. The SHTP has nothing to do with a 37sec/mile rating drop in a boats rating. The PHRF doesn't take into account these races. Your issue is with NorCal PHRF issued rating which changed for some reason other than a single performance in a Singlehanded offshore distance race.
 
The ratings game is far from perfect but it's all we got unless you want to buy us all Figaro IIIs.

I have had my "certified" DWPHRF (ie calibrated weigh-in and measurements) change 3x times in 4 years as they massage the formula.

How about my ORR-ez rating based on those certified numbers that was changes 3x times in a single month! Twice AFTER 2 of 3 races were complete in the California Offshore Race week to the tune of 30% worse. I went from rating similar to boats that had near PHRF standard/offwind ratings (.89) to owing Melges 32 a lot of time (they are 30sec/mile faster under PHRF) and nearly scratch with a J/125 and Santa Cruz 50.....(.98) this is for a 30ft, 57sec/mile rated boat. THAT is something to bitch about.

I have been in touch, AGAIN, this year with the ORR folks and they simply have no explanation, yet, why a "measurement rating" is variable and based on human input. I have asked, again, this year repeatedly with the new ORR-ez folks, for a copy of the 3x ratings that were issued that week or even any ONE of the THREE they issued. I've been promised they would get back to me numerous times since spring, but nada.

Where are my Tums.
 
There is no rating credit for "non-engine" in PHRF..... unless you are talking about inboard vs. outboard. Olsons in general do not have an inboard.

The <125% jib credit used to be 6 sec/mile and in the late 90s(??) PHRF lowered it to 3 sec/mile.

The only rating adjustment the SSS uses is one developed for the PacCup..... which again takes into account planning vs. non-planning hulls (ie how heavy the boat is). This is very similar to the Downwind ratings that have been developed by the PHRF.

In 2018 the Olsons were the fastest boats in the fleet which is very rare. However sailing an Olson is no guarantee of success.

Please take a look at these historical results which have Olson 30s all over it.

http://sfbaysss.org/shtp2018/2018/07/17/forty-years-of-shtp-results/

I'd say based on the 21x times I count the Olson 30s have competed in the race it hasn't done very well at all. The overall winners seem to be NOT Olson 30s.... in fact it seems displacement boats have a better chance.

Here are the overall winners I gathered:
Islander 36, Cal 40(2x), Olson 30(3x), Wylie 27, Wilderness 30, J/120, Erikson 35mkII, Spenser 35, Black Soo 30, Baltic 38, 30Sq.Meter, Newland 36, Freedom 44, Carlson 29, Wylie 34, Golden Gate 25, Santa Cruz 27.

If this true? If so it would explain a lot.
 
The SSS hasn't given the Olson 30 a rating "break", ever. The SHTP has nothing to do with a 37sec/mile rating drop in a boats rating. The PHRF doesn't take into account these races. Your issue is with NorCal PHRF issued rating which changed for some reason other than a single performance in a Singlehanded offshore distance race.
Really? How do you know this? There were no other Spencer 35’s racing in NCPHRF at the time that I’m aware of
 
I bought Double Espresso with a current PHRF certificate of 99, which I had transferred to me. I reached out to NorCal to let them know that I was going to sail without my outboard and asked for an updated certificate. The rating didn't change. After doing a bit of math I figured that leaving with a #1 was not worth it either (the conditions where a #1 would help for an O30 vs the gain of a higher rating were very unlikely). So I reached out again and requested a new certificate, which bumped the rating to 102. I had the #1 shipped for the buyers.

I think your real question is why Bill Stange's rating was 96, which you should probably ask NorCal or Bill. I personally don't know.

Theoretical question: what should the rating of Double Espresso have been so that it would have finished second?
 
Theoretical question: what should the rating of Double Espresso have been so that it would have finished second?

Exactly.

I commented earlier about the Can doing well under ToT in the OYRA races. I sat down and computed how much of a rating hit it would take for them to finish second in a Drake's Bay race, and it was something like 81 sec/mile.

Arguing about PHRF ratings is usually a fool's errand. (Though solosailor's issues sound legit.)
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Theoretical question: what should the rating of Double Espresso have been so that it would have finished second?

Excellent question, Mr Excellent Tactician. More importantly than ratings are the times when you arrive in Hanalei Bay. Can't you all get organized in order to delay your arrivals so the race committee doesn't have to swim out to the rickety little chase boat in the middle of the night? Fussing about PHRF ratings while more important issues are ignored. Huh.

Seriously, though, I am waiting for someone with a calculator to respond. Shall we ask Ray? I've asked Ray.
 
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I bought Double Espresso with a current PHRF certificate of 99, which I had transferred to me. I reached out to NorCal to let them know that I was going to sail without my outboard and asked for an updated certificate. The rating didn't change. After doing a bit of math I figured that leaving with a #1 was not worth it either (the conditions where a #1 would help for an O30 vs the gain of a higher rating were very unlikely). So I reached out again and requested a new certificate, which bumped the rating to 102. I had the #1 shipped for the buyers.

I think your real question is why Bill Stange's rating was 96, which you should probably ask NorCal or Bill. I personally don't know.

Theoretical question: what should the rating of Double Espresso have been so that it would have finished second?

Thanks for making my point! Great effort BTW
 
Theoretical question: what should the rating of Double Espresso have been so that it would have finished second?

"Fools errand" is correct. In 2018 SHTP DOUBLE EXPRESSO would have been second by ~ 6+ hours had not the leader (and ultimate second place) broken and spent considerable time hove to, going slowly, and off course. The answer to the theoretical question is SHTP rating doesn't matter if a competitor can't finish, or finish in one piece. Had there been no breakage, the "theoretical question" would have been about the rating of a 30 footer of different design. Congrats to PJ for keeping it together.
 
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