BobJ
Alerion 38 "Surprise!"
Somehow that reminded me of magnolia-scented face towels.
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New Boat 4 Sled
- Thread starter sleddog
- Start date
Somehow that reminded me of magnolia-scented face towels.
Oh BobE, I can't tell you how happy it makes me feel knowing that you remember that.
So, this is Envolee at the start of the Puerto Vallarta race in March 2020
My guess is item #3 is the untruth.
Please add 5 hours to my estimate since a projected departure is known.
Revised arrival - Tuesday, 3:22 pm.
Ants
It seems there is no competition for the macapuno, so far.
Since I already changed my estimate once, there will be no other changes. However, I will reveal an error in my guess. My basis for the time was the double handed performance by SNAFU (Moore 24) in the Coastal Cup. In a stellar performance, they completed the course in under 22 hours. My oversight was that I did not realize the Coastal Cup started in Monterey. Windy predicted good winds for the Envolee delivery and the crew are not slackers.
Information to contemplate.
Ants
Since I already changed my estimate once, there will be no other changes. However, I will reveal an error in my guess. My basis for the time was the double handed performance by SNAFU (Moore 24) in the Coastal Cup. In a stellar performance, they completed the course in under 22 hours. My oversight was that I did not realize the Coastal Cup started in Monterey. Windy predicted good winds for the Envolee delivery and the crew are not slackers.
Information to contemplate.
Ants
No worries, the Macapuno with pomegranate arils will not be easily pried from the CBC freezer. My guess is 8:33 a.m Wednesday morning, Feb.23. I would remind anyone considering entering this competition that ENVOLEE's passage is a delivery to Santa Barbara, then San Diego for the start of the Puerto Vallarta Race. It behooves Synthia and crew not to break anything, especially light sails. Comparing ENVOLEE's cruising speed with a racing Moore 24 on a full on plane may be a deception. Ants is sneaky like a fox.
So what happened next on SNAFU? Oh dear. / https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLYDq4PEJRM
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Philpott
Cal 2-27 Dura Mater
I do like Macapuno. It can be found at Andronico's in Monterey, but it is much more fun to eat it at the CBC. Assuming that Envolee starts out at RYC facing the wind, if she raises sail and leaves from there under engine I suppose she can get to the gate in an hour. Then, assuming 349 nm to Santa Barbara from there, with a hull speed of 7.28 knots, in the forecast 20-30 knot winds with wind waves of 10-12' every 13 seconds? Yikes!
Too rich for my blood, however Synthia and crew are all accomplished sailors/racers and they are probably licking their sailing chops for these conditions. Maybe only a delivery, but it will be much faster and more comfortable under sail, small sails, right? For Envolee, who loves big wind, it should be a walk in the park. I have my calculator here in front of me. Let's say they sail conservatively, my guess is Tuesday February 22 @ 7 pm, assuming 10 knots per nautical mile with each one of the cowboys taking turns barrel racing 'round those waves. Easy for me to guess as I'm comfortable and warm and dry. Living vicariously I will assume they plan to sail fast and revel in the glory of the ocean.
Too rich for my blood, however Synthia and crew are all accomplished sailors/racers and they are probably licking their sailing chops for these conditions. Maybe only a delivery, but it will be much faster and more comfortable under sail, small sails, right? For Envolee, who loves big wind, it should be a walk in the park. I have my calculator here in front of me. Let's say they sail conservatively, my guess is Tuesday February 22 @ 7 pm, assuming 10 knots per nautical mile with each one of the cowboys taking turns barrel racing 'round those waves. Easy for me to guess as I'm comfortable and warm and dry. Living vicariously I will assume they plan to sail fast and revel in the glory of the ocean.
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A fine shot of CALIFORNIAN chasing down WANDERBIRD. If you count the combined number of sails on both ships and add them to the age of WANDERBIRD's original Cape Horn ("50 South to 50 South") crew member whose birthday is this coming Saturday, you'd get 103.
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Intermission
Member
At his last significant birthday party, we couldn't find the birthday boy. Ultimately, he was found out front working below on his boat. There will be cake for the invited. If you are not, and know this Cape Horner, get in touch and I will put you down as my guest.
Howard Spruit
Member
OK, I'm in/ My WAG is Wed, the 23rd @ 1800hrs. PST
And I don't believe they will be anchoring a at nite.
And I don't believe they will be anchoring a at nite.
OK, all you routers. You have 30 minutes to submit your guess of when ENVOLEE arrives Santa Barbara. So far:
Ants, Tuesday, 3:22 pm.
Philpott, Tuesday, 7pm.
sleddog, Wed, 8:33 a.m.
SKatzman & cat, Wed, 11:33 a.m.
Howard, Wed, 6 p.m.
BobJ, Thurs, 5:51 pm
Weather looks to be windy and cold. Big Sur Range may get snow showers Tuesday. My guess is SURPRISE's new cabin heater would be seeing use on ENVOLEE if it were aboard.
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Ahoy gamblers and routers. It appears that BobJ will win the first serving of Macapuno with pomegranates as we have opted to delay our departure until tomorrow. We built plenty of cushion into our original plan, so we do not need to rush out into that mess and beat ourselves and the boat up for a delivery. Now we are looking at the strategy of arriving at Pt Conception with some reasonable conditions, how that looks between Pt. Sur to Pt Conception, and how that looks between SF to Pt. Sur. So, ETD TBD.
Perhaps we can start a 2nd round of this pronostiguessing challenge to answer when should we leave RYC?
Perhaps we can start a 2nd round of this pronostiguessing challenge to answer when should we leave RYC?
Philpott
Cal 2-27 Dura Mater
Much as I would have loved reading about all the kerfuffles inherent in sailing a Figaro in 40 knots, I agree that a new round of pronostiguessing would be fun. It's your contest, Skip.
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Philpott
Cal 2-27 Dura Mater
So, does your guess remain?
Good call by Synthia!
I did a race down the Coast in similar conditions, the July, 1992, Aldo Alessio Coastal Cup, 375 miles from St. Francis YC to Long Beach. 11 ULDB 70 foot sleds had an incredible ride surfing 12 foot swells in 30 plus knots. With everyone reporting speeds in excess of 24 knots, it was not a race for the faint of heart or weak of boat.
On the SC-70 MIRAGE we led the fleet past Ano Nuevo in 25-30 knots and before sunset were approaching Pt. Sur in 30-37 knots. A mile astern, the Andrews 70 VICTORIA did an ugly round down and we could hear the sound of breakage as her mast came down. We were down to 10 sleds, until we weren't, when KATHMANDU put her masthead in the water and lost her masthead instruments and halyards.
Just past Sur and shortly after sunset we jibed to port, and things got sporting. The boat was going faster than the waves, and we'd regularly poke the bow, sending a wall of water aft to fill the cockpit. Yiii doggies! Finally, just before dark, we got a 38 knot puff, punched the bow simultaneously, loaded the rig heavily, and MIRAGE went down. With the rudder out of water, we lay there on our side until the spinnaker halyard was run...
From aft of the wheel, I heard the owner's 14 year old daughter Lizzie ask, "Daddy, are we going to die? I haven't been to high school yet."
Shortly after, the boat came upright, we jibed back to starboard, set the chicken chute, and averaged 18 knots through the night to Pt. Conception....that was a race to remember.
I did a race down the Coast in similar conditions, the July, 1992, Aldo Alessio Coastal Cup, 375 miles from St. Francis YC to Long Beach. 11 ULDB 70 foot sleds had an incredible ride surfing 12 foot swells in 30 plus knots. With everyone reporting speeds in excess of 24 knots, it was not a race for the faint of heart or weak of boat.
On the SC-70 MIRAGE we led the fleet past Ano Nuevo in 25-30 knots and before sunset were approaching Pt. Sur in 30-37 knots. A mile astern, the Andrews 70 VICTORIA did an ugly round down and we could hear the sound of breakage as her mast came down. We were down to 10 sleds, until we weren't, when KATHMANDU put her masthead in the water and lost her masthead instruments and halyards.
Just past Sur and shortly after sunset we jibed to port, and things got sporting. The boat was going faster than the waves, and we'd regularly poke the bow, sending a wall of water aft to fill the cockpit. Yiii doggies! Finally, just before dark, we got a 38 knot puff, punched the bow simultaneously, loaded the rig heavily, and MIRAGE went down. With the rudder out of water, we lay there on our side until the spinnaker halyard was run...
From aft of the wheel, I heard the owner's 14 year old daughter Lizzie ask, "Daddy, are we going to die? I haven't been to high school yet."
Shortly after, the boat came upright, we jibed back to starboard, set the chicken chute, and averaged 18 knots through the night to Pt. Conception....that was a race to remember.
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