solosailor
New member
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Cheers - Bryan
Preparations for the LongPac
- Thread starter Philpott
- Start date
tiger beetle
N/M 45 Tiger Beetle
Hi Jackie -
I find the US Navy COAMPS model to be very good for the bay area - if it is being run for the bay area. Check this with SailDocs.
Stan Honey recommended the HRRR model (also available via SailDocs) as being excellent; I have not used this model, but if Stan likes it then you should check it out. I'm going to explore how it does for condition forecasts on my trip down the coast Seattle -> San Francisco in July.
The GFS model does fine for synoptic winds, not so well for inshore stuff - e.g., GFS will show you where it thinks the synoptic offshore breeze will be but does not do a good job at guestimating what is happening inside the Farallone islands).
ECMWF isn't generally available, as obtaining the model output is rather expensive. I can't comment on it as I've not used it (though I believe that WINDY can display this model and the GFS model output).
For near-shore used my favorites remain WFax and the local NWS Monterey forecasts - all of which are available via SailDocs as email requests (and you can listen to Perfect Paul via VHF when close to shore).
And don't forget to look at your barometer/barograph and stick your head out the companion way once in a while - that's the real weather. And do calibrate your barometer/barograph. I have a barograph (Mintaka Duo) and it's much more useful (and accurate) than the Weems & Plath aneroid barometer I had for many years.
- rob
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Philpott
Cal 2-27 Dura Mater
More Prep for DM
062319 On Sunday, after failing my inspection by Tom Boussie (no hacksaw, knife, handheld compass, charts) DM and I sailed w Philippe out of RYC. After a gentle spinnaker run from Angel Island toward Red Rock, where we ran out of wind, we went through Raccoon Straits along with dozens of other sailboats. It was a gorgeous day. Sunshine. Gentle wind. Then, as we came out the gate side the wind slammed us.
According to Sailflow the wind was a steady 25 with gusts above that. Philippe suggested we practice gybing over and over. Huh? It was a steady 25. But he is the tactician, so we did. Since I was at the tiller and we weren’t reefed, there were a couple of roundups. Not the weed killing kind, the kind that reminded me that I had a spare tiller in the vberth. Once we got into the lee of Angel Island Philippe looked around for something else to do. His two scones were gone, the ham and swiss on a sweet roll eaten, and I had squished the third scone by falling on it. So there was nothing left to eat.
062719 There was a gap between the tiller head and its shaft, so I asked my hotshot racing friend if I could have a few more shims. He said, “Sure, the sooner the better.” He is preparing for the LongPac, too, so that was very generous of him to make time for me. More cookies, of course. So I made another trip up to the nosebleed neighborhood in the Montclair Hills. Once my ears adjusted I found him outside his workshop, guard cat at the ready. Katherine was there and so was a friend of Greg’s from middle school, another Jackie. We’re everywhere.
I helped make three new shims out of some high tech material; whiteboard and something else. In other words, Greg made ‘em and I swiped at the workbench with a hand brush, threw away trash, the low-skill stuff. Drove to DM, installed them and … Bob’s your uncle! Now my tiller doesn’t jiggle.
062319 On Sunday, after failing my inspection by Tom Boussie (no hacksaw, knife, handheld compass, charts) DM and I sailed w Philippe out of RYC. After a gentle spinnaker run from Angel Island toward Red Rock, where we ran out of wind, we went through Raccoon Straits along with dozens of other sailboats. It was a gorgeous day. Sunshine. Gentle wind. Then, as we came out the gate side the wind slammed us.
According to Sailflow the wind was a steady 25 with gusts above that. Philippe suggested we practice gybing over and over. Huh? It was a steady 25. But he is the tactician, so we did. Since I was at the tiller and we weren’t reefed, there were a couple of roundups. Not the weed killing kind, the kind that reminded me that I had a spare tiller in the vberth. Once we got into the lee of Angel Island Philippe looked around for something else to do. His two scones were gone, the ham and swiss on a sweet roll eaten, and I had squished the third scone by falling on it. So there was nothing left to eat.
062719 There was a gap between the tiller head and its shaft, so I asked my hotshot racing friend if I could have a few more shims. He said, “Sure, the sooner the better.” He is preparing for the LongPac, too, so that was very generous of him to make time for me. More cookies, of course. So I made another trip up to the nosebleed neighborhood in the Montclair Hills. Once my ears adjusted I found him outside his workshop, guard cat at the ready. Katherine was there and so was a friend of Greg’s from middle school, another Jackie. We’re everywhere.
I helped make three new shims out of some high tech material; whiteboard and something else. In other words, Greg made ‘em and I swiped at the workbench with a hand brush, threw away trash, the low-skill stuff. Drove to DM, installed them and … Bob’s your uncle! Now my tiller doesn’t jiggle.
Oops..thanks for getting me to doublecheck.
BobJ
Alerion 38 "Surprise!"
Do you believe Sail Flow (yuk!) or NWS and Passage Weather, which look better? What are you watching and what are you seeing?
Also, what does the assembled multitude recommend for AIS alarm settings? I can set min. CPA distance, CPA time and target's SOG.
.
Also, what does the assembled multitude recommend for AIS alarm settings? I can set min. CPA distance, CPA time and target's SOG.
.
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solosailor
New member
I look at it them all. Don't forget windy..... easy toggle between GFS and EC. Don't have any "paid" models going. The all don't look like fun for the Azzura, hope it settles down in the next few days.
BobJ
Alerion 38 "Surprise!"
According to Tommy Chong, "far out man."
I don't remember. The offshore traffic area is a 38 nm radius out from Mt. Tam, so I'd guess they expect to talk to vessels on Ch. 12 about 50 miles out.
I'm sitting this one out, but it does look messy. Jackie, the Coast Guard guarantees 21 nm out, but since the antenna's on Mt Tam Bob is probably right at between 40 - 50 nm. I routinely hear Monterey at the Farallones, but I don't know that they'd hear me. I hope everyone is prepared and will be safe. Pat B.
weather.gov
National Weather Service
NWS Marine Forecast
Go to the NOAA Homepage
NWS Homepage
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Cell Phone Weather/Marine Page URL: cell.weather.gov
PDA Weather/Marine Page URL: mobile.weather.gov
Hazardous marine condition(s):
Small Craft Advisory
PZZ500-020330-
812 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.Synopsis for the Central California Coast and Bays Including
the Monterey Bay...Greater Farallones...and Cordell Bank
National Marine Sanctuaries...
Moderate to locally gusty northwesterly winds will continue across
the coastal waters today. Expect winds to increase tonight and
remain elevated through at least mid week. These winds will
generate steep fresh swell at 6 to 8 seconds that will dominate
sea conditions. Steep fresh swell may create hazardous conditions
for smaller vessels.
$$
PZZ545-020330-
Coastal Waters from Point Reyes to Pigeon Point California out to
10 nm-
812 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2019
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
TODAY
NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves
4 to 5 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 7 seconds.
TONIGHT
NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind
waves 5 to 6 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 7 seconds.
TUE
NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind waves
6 to 7 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 7 seconds.
TUE NIGHT
NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind
waves 6 to 7 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 7 seconds.
WED
NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves
6 to 7 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 7 seconds.
WED NIGHT
NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind
waves 5 to 6 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 7 seconds.
INDEPENDENCE DAY
NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves around 3 ft.
W swell 5 to 7 ft.
FRI
W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to
8 ft.
..SAN FRANCISCO BAR/FOURFATHOM BANK FORECAST
IN THE DEEP WATER CHANNEL...Southwest swell 1 to 3 ft with a
dominant period of 7 seconds.
ACROSS THE BAR...Southwest seas 2 to 4 ft with a dominant period
of 7 seconds. Maximum ebb current of 1.3 kt at 04:19 PM Monday and
4.0 kt at 04:01 AM Tuesday.
$$
National Weather Service
NWS Marine Forecast
Go to the NOAA Homepage
NWS Homepage
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Cell Phone Weather/Marine Page URL: cell.weather.gov
PDA Weather/Marine Page URL: mobile.weather.gov
Hazardous marine condition(s):
Small Craft Advisory
PZZ500-020330-
812 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2019
.Synopsis for the Central California Coast and Bays Including
the Monterey Bay...Greater Farallones...and Cordell Bank
National Marine Sanctuaries...
Moderate to locally gusty northwesterly winds will continue across
the coastal waters today. Expect winds to increase tonight and
remain elevated through at least mid week. These winds will
generate steep fresh swell at 6 to 8 seconds that will dominate
sea conditions. Steep fresh swell may create hazardous conditions
for smaller vessels.
$$
PZZ545-020330-
Coastal Waters from Point Reyes to Pigeon Point California out to
10 nm-
812 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2019
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
TODAY
NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves
4 to 5 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 7 seconds.
TONIGHT
NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind
waves 5 to 6 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 7 seconds.
TUE
NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind waves
6 to 7 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 7 seconds.
TUE NIGHT
NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind
waves 6 to 7 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 7 seconds.
WED
NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves
6 to 7 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 7 seconds.
WED NIGHT
NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind
waves 5 to 6 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 7 seconds.
INDEPENDENCE DAY
NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves around 3 ft.
W swell 5 to 7 ft.
FRI
W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to
8 ft.
..SAN FRANCISCO BAR/FOURFATHOM BANK FORECAST
IN THE DEEP WATER CHANNEL...Southwest swell 1 to 3 ft with a
dominant period of 7 seconds.
ACROSS THE BAR...Southwest seas 2 to 4 ft with a dominant period
of 7 seconds. Maximum ebb current of 1.3 kt at 04:19 PM Monday and
4.0 kt at 04:01 AM Tuesday.
$$
Philpott
Cal 2-27 Dura Mater
Aaaahhh. Well, that looks scary. Maybe I'll start with everybody else (because that's the fun part), then anchor in Aquatic Park and wait for the next day, when it seems the weather will have moderated a bit. Because my middle name is Prudence. Is this kosher? I can't tell from the Sailing Instructions.
As long as you anchor out and don't row in for latte's and brioche, I'd say probably...
of course you'd need to sail into & out of the harbor, On & Off the anchor etc...
Sausalito sounds easier all around and has better departure scenarios.
DH
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solosailor
New member
Pizza is definately outside assistance !
Philpott
Cal 2-27 Dura Mater
I’m following Ruben Gabriel’s advice, ordering a thin crust spinach, onion and mushroom thin crust from Extreme pizza on College Ave to go Tuesday night. I’ll ask them to cut it up into slices, put each slice into a ziplock bag, then eat at my leisure. Or in between leaning over the leeward side of my boat. The pain and the ecstasy.