Preparations for the LongPac

[AlanH]

It used to be that the LongPac and TransPac rules allowed you to anchor anywhere, and still continue the race as long as you didn't go ashore. So in theory, you COULD do that.

 

[tiger beetle]

Will it really be only 10-15 TWS at 126 40? One can hope. (GFS per Passage Weather.)

And a southerly swell under NW wind waves - there must be something happening down south.

That would be called Hurricane Barbara.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

- rob

 

[Dazzler]

From my perspective in the comfort of home... If the goal is to just complete the qualifier, looking at the forecasts, one strategy might be to consider going to Drake’s Bay on Wednesday, anchor for the night then head out in the early AM. The actual sea state offshore will be another deciding factor.

Be safe.
Tom

 

[solosailor]

Outsider is going to sit this one out.

 

[tiger beetle]

The weather forecasts make the course look lumpy and fast and not much pleasure sailing. As a qualifier conditions look good to test boats and skippers in solid offshore conditions without being boat-breaking.

Worst SSS TransPac conditions I have seen were solid 35 knot NW breeze for two days out the Gate, hard reaching in good size lumpy seas with the cockpit shipping a wave about once an hour - I found all the leaks around the companionway in short order. Twice a cresting wave struck the transom and spun Big Beetle through head-to-wind, which is an interesting feeling while hiding down below and the entire boat slowls down, leans the wrong way as the jib backs, the autopilot lets the boat spin entirely around in a slow circle, the jib shakes the rig like crazy, and suddenly it fills and we're off again headed towards Hawaii. The second time it happened I didn't even bother to go up into the cockpit it was so soppy wet. Mike Jefferson came up with his cry of 'Up Periscope' when he would pop open the companionway hatch to poke his head out to see if there was anything out there, and then he would promptly 'Down Periscope' and slam the hatch shut as a wave crest shot over the boat. It was a miserable two days - but fast.

- rob

 

[Gamayun]

Those conditions don't look too bad from where I'm sitting. We had consistent 28-32 knots for 36 hours or so of the 2017 LongPac. It seems like good ole NorCal boat testing conditions. As to VHF, when a few of us were at the turnaround point, we were making small talk on Ch. 16 when CG (LA/Long Beach, I think) interrupted us and said to move our chit chat somewhere else. Ooops. They hear everything!

 

[tiger beetle]

As to VHF, when a few of us were at the turnaround point, we were making small talk on Ch. 16 when CG (LA/Long Beach, I think) interrupted us and said to move our chit chat somewhere else. Ooops. They hear everything!

If you're off San Francisco and hearing (or being heard by) USCG Long Beach then you're experiencing an interesting tropospheric ducting phenomena for VHF frequencies. On occasion you can communicate from SF to Hawaii that way.

- rob

 

[jamottep]

On Windy.com there are three types of forecasting. It has been suggested that NAM, ECMWF and GFS are sometimes more accurate according to the area. Which of these three seems best for LongPac territory? Or is that oversimplification?

Here's a link to a short description of the major models:

https://windy.app/blog/what-is-a-we...-on-forecast-models-all-around-the-world.html

 

[brianb]

Where are you sitting ?

Those conditions don't look too bad from where I'm sitting. We had consistent 28-32 knots for 36 hours or so of the 2017 LongPac. It seems like good ole NorCal boat testing conditions. As to VHF, when a few of us were at the turnaround point, we were making small talk on Ch. 16 when CG (LA/Long Beach, I think) interrupted us and said to move our chit chat somewhere else. Ooops. They hear everything!

Bouy s and models are showing conditions that have, and will again see winds above 40 for the early boats. A Monday return could be pleasent.

 

[Gamayun]

That's big! I didn't see those projections until after the race had started. Huge respect to all the racers who went forth this year knowing those conditions ahead of them as well as those who decided to call it early or not go at all. Those are some of the hardest decisions to make.

 

[WBChristie]

PZZ571-060445-
Waters from Point Reyes to Pigeon Point 10-60 NM-
838 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2019

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING


TODAY
NW winds 10 to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 25 kt by
midday. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. S swell 3 to 4 ft at 15 seconds.

TONIGHT
NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind
waves 7 to 8 ft. S swell 4 to 5 ft at 16 seconds.

SAT
NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind waves
7 to 8 ft. S swell around 4 ft at 15 seconds.

SAT NIGHT
NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind
waves 8 to 9 ft. S swell 3 to 4 ft at 14 seconds.

SUN
NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves
7 to 8 ft. S swell 2 to 3 ft at 20 seconds.

SUN NIGHT
NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind
waves 6 to 7 ft. S swell 2 to 3 ft at 20 seconds.

MON
NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SW swell 2 to
3 ft.

TUE
NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SW swell 2 to
3 ft.

 

[Gamayun]

If you're off San Francisco and hearing (or being heard by) USCG Long Beach then you're experiencing an interesting tropospheric ducting phenomena for VHF frequencies. On occasion you can communicate from SF to Hawaii that way.

- rob

I had no idea! So my anomalous data point of one can't always be a given as future expectation. I guess it would be wise to remember this