The 2019 LongPac is up for grabs. At least 4 boats in contention. But there's a better than even chance the race will start over tomorrow morning. Why? Any competitor approaching within 10 miles of the Golden Gate between 5 a.m and 11 a.m is going to experience the effects of light winds coupled with a massive 4.3 knot ebb at 0700. The ebb might even be stronger than that, given current Sierra snowmelt on the surface. That's not a "gate," that's a Wall.
In addition, the front runners have challenges asterisked by their names.
SURPRISE * PHRF rating 111. Has BobJ fixed his Autopilot? If not, can he hand steer for the next 18+ hours?
With a possible ETA of 0830, will he meet the Wall and possibly be unable to get inside the Golden Gate until mid or late morning when the wind makes up and the current slackens?
SEA WISDOM * PHRF rating 150. This Hinckley 42, designed by McCurdy and Rhodes, and built in 1987, has got to be a sentimental favorite. 32 years old, displacing 25,000 pounds, her waterline and stability paid dividends in the conditions of the outbound leg. But can William Lee deal with the light airs and downwind sail angles of tomorrow's approach? Maybe.
SEA WISDOM is currently only 2 miles behind
SURPRISE and could assume the boat-for-boat lead later this afternoon as conditions freshen.
SHARK ON BLUEGRASS * PHRF rating 159. This Olson 25 could do well indeed when the race starts over tomorrow mid-morning.
SHARK is light, nimble, and fast in lighter conditions. But can she get over the challenge of the 20-25 knots of breeze that will be encountered tonight after the lights go out? Falk has to be tired. Small boats on a big ocean do that to you. Go the
SHARK!
Then there's a real, honest to god, dark horse thundering in from the southwest. Daniel Willey won this race in 3 days, 1 hour in 2013, and when the ketch
GALAXSEA (PHRF 180!) gets her rail under and the windshield wipers going, it's Katy bar the door, there's trouble on its way.
GALAXSEA is heavier and has more waterline than any other boat in the fleet..and not by a little. She'll be bruising the ocean wave tonight.
GALAXSEA is also a sentimental favorite, same as
SURPRISE, SEA WISDOM, and
SHARK ON BLUEGRASS. But there's a nagging question. Did
GALAXSEA cross the 126-40 turnaround? The tracker casts doubt, but I'm sure Daniel has it all on video. I'm just glad
GALAXSEA's refrigerator door will be to leeward for the windy reach into the Gulf of the Farallones.
Here's the Tracker:
https://www.jibeset.net/tv.php Click on the Green "Watch" Button.
The above are just opinions ..As Scoop Nisker would say on his 5 pm KSAN alternative news report, "If you don't like the news, go out and make some of your own."