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Race Progress

Bandicoot heading back out

I spoke with Al Germain at about 1430. He was on Bandicoot at RYC and preparing to leave the dock to give it another try. Max ebb at GG was about 1510.
 
At around 16:00 on 6/23/2010, Ben 'Mirage' Mewes and Al 'Bandicoot' Germain sailed out of Richmond YC harbor on their way to Hanalei Bay!

Ben's voice was upbeat and he's excited to catch up to some of the other racers while they park themselves for a little while. Ben said he's all loaded up with Gorilla tape and a full charge in the battery bank, so there's no stopping him now. Go Ben and Al!
 
I received a call from Ben at 20:15, and he is on his way back to Richmond. Mirage is taking on too much water, and Ben feels his decision is the right one considering the circumstances. Wise decision my friend...2120 nautical miles is a hell of a long way to go when your boat is that thirsty!
 
the High is unstable, but today's chart validates the 48 hr forecast from 2 days ago. I think the next day or so will really suck for the rhumbline guys. Solar Wind is killing them all on corrected time, looks like.






 
standings...

So I've done some approximations. Don't want to generate any controversy here, but I find it interesting and thought sharing it. I've calculated what I think are the current standings in the race. It is a rough approximation. I'm using the start time of 11 AM on the 19th (I know that is not completely accurate), and I'm calculating time to finish based on the last 24 hr VMG average. So, with these assumptions and approximations in mind, this is what the corrected overall standings are looking like right now:

Warriors Wish
Solar Wind
Idefix
Saraband
Hecla
Pakele
Southernaire
Harrier
Culebra
Taz!!
Bandicoot
Second Verse
Blue Moon
Dream Chaser

With some of the slowdowns some folks are having these standings will likely bounce around a lot until folks get in the more consistent trades.

Enjoy!
 
Thanks, Dan. I'm really pulling for Max. He'd be a great commodore for the next two years. My othert nominee, if a local dosen't win would be..............you.

So, folks, let's hear it for Max and Dan.

Bill Merrick
 
wish I could

Go Max, I do hope he pulls through.... Seems like he has put himself in a good position. But time (and the unstable High) will tell.


Re. Commodore. Wish I could at this time, but not likely. Too many other responsibilities at this time. Max has my vote.
 
Max must have one of those sat domes and internet. He's clearly slowed since Bill posted.
 
For your amusement

Based on the 2100 reports.... Estimates of standings:


24hr 24hr speed
Warriors Wish 5.333333333
Bandicoot 6.666666667
Idefix 4.375
Saraband 3.5
Hecla 3.875
Harrier 3.166666667
Solar Wind 2.708333333
Pakele 2.458333333
Southernaire 2.291666667
Dream Chaser 2.125
Culebra 1.541666667
Taz!! 1.5
Second Verse 0.916666667
Blue Moon 0.708333333

Average speed over racecourse:
Saraband
Hecla
Idefix
Warriors Wish
Solar Wind
Harrier
Pakele
Culebra
Dream Chaser
Taz!!
Second Verse
Blue Moon
Southernaire
Bandicoot (*assumes started with everyone else)


Looks like the wind is filling up from the north and WW is up and going again. If Bandicoot can avoid the holes, it might be a come from behind affair for Al.
 
Predicted standings as of 6/25 0900

WW looks to be picking up speed, only 40 odd miles behind Hecla. Many of the other boats look to still be struggling with lighter winds. Bandicoot still pushing hard from the back.


24hr 24hr speed
Warriors Wish 6.291666667
Idefix 5.083333333
Bandicoot 5.791666667
Harrier 4
Saraband 3.666666667
Pakele 3.958333333
Hecla 4.375
Dream Chaser 3.25
Solar Wind 2.416666667
Taz!! 2.291666667
Culebra 1.791666667
Southernaire 1.458333333
Blue Moon 0.916666667
Second Verse 0.833333333



Avg
Saraband
Warriors Wish
Idefix
Harrier
Hecla
Pakele
Solar Wind
Dream Chaser
Culebra
Taz!!
Second Verse
Blue Moon
Southernaire
Bandicoot
 
Predicted standings as of 6/25 2100

Predicted standings based on 6/25 2100 reports. Pretty darn close racing. Using the 24hr numbers the top 3 boats are within 1.5 hours from each other. As expected the southeasterns boats are not yet at hull speed, but they should have a better angle towards the finish.

Using last 24hr avg speed as future predictor:

24hr Corrected T(sec)
Saraband 1074005.714
Warriors Wish 1075593.631
Idefix 1079496
Pakele 1106197.08
Harrier 1141227.097
Hecla 1225507.55
Dream Chaser 1475393.846
Bandicoot 1486044.58
Solar Wind 1780760
Blue Moon 2001550.986
Taz!! 2042779.459
Culebra 2459804.068
Southernaire 3238947.234
Second Verse 5071017.931

Using Average Speed from start of the race:
Avg Corrected T(sec)
Saraband 1151517.59
Warriors Wish 1170556.561
Idefix 1182688.72
Harrier 1242175.922
Hecla 1249332.308
Pakele 1294781.215
Solar Wind 1382570.867
Dream Chaser 1467040
Culebra 1581670.236
Taz!! 1650133.748
Blue Moon 1836965.07
Second Verse 2053312.454
Southernaire 2250695.135
Bandicoot 3699342.703

They are beginning to solidify in terms of order as the winds begins to settle. And the 24hr numbers I think will be the better predictors.
 
Here are some of the positions for 0900 plotted over the 1000 wind for Saturday 6/26.

012.png


It looks like the trades will start to strengthen by Wednesday 6/30.

108.png
 
Estimate finishes as of 6/26 0900

A bit of shuffle amongst the leader board. Idefix looking better, Saraband still in the hunt, but as the lighter boats start to pick up speed she might drop a couple of slots.


24hr Corrected T(sec)
Idefix 1025053.333
Saraband 1049689.231
Harrier 1068481.791
Warriors Wish 1108488
Hecla 1170381.818
Pakele 1181302.362
Blue Moon 1292552.432
Dream Chaser 1314280
Solar Wind 1366079.633
Bandicoot 1412411.429
Taz!! 1693372.174
Southernaire 1854957.647
Culebra 1887880
Second Verse 3822572.308

Avg Corrected T(sec)
Saraband 1151923.727
Idefix 1159754.595
Warriors Wish 1164836.991
Harrier 1219796.345
Hecla 1243060.118
Pakele 1297731.194
Solar Wind 1368843.404
Dream Chaser 1446432.906
Culebra 1604890.178
Taz!! 1640284.35
Blue Moon 1779792.131
Second Verse 2129303.301
Southernaire 2173361.217
Bandicoot 3247840
 
Bandicoot seems to be going well at this point. If Al stays along the rhumbline it looks like he could catch up some more. Should he stay the course or head a little south in about a day or so? Does he need a reach like an assy boat?
 
Bandicoot

I don't think he will be last. But looking through my predictions I don't think he'll be able to break to top half of the fleet.

Now, the real question re. Bandicoot. Was he forced to come back under threat from the CG to launch a SAR because he lost his SSB and sat phone due to water on the first couple of days and couldn't check in?

I know the race imposes a time penalty for not checking in, and that alone might have taken him out of contention and forced him back. But going back automatically takes him out of contention as well. So at the end of the day it doesn't make much sense to turn around. If it was because of the CG, I think that is BS. I thought that was what the EPIRBs are for.

Its just a bummer as it looks like Bandicoot would have been in the running for top honors.
 
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